The NFL MVP odds are… misguided
Winning the NFL MVP is hard. Only 57 players of the tens of thousands that have graced the field have managed to win the award.
But as hard as it is to earn the distinction as the Most Valuable Player in the NFL, doing so as a non-quarterback or running back is even harder. No offensive players outside of those two positions have ever claimed the honor, and only three defensive players/special teamers have been so lucky.
there are a couple of wide receivers who either have or are on pace to make history
Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa, two quarterbacks, are the odds-on favorites to win NFL MVP for the 2023 season. But the simple fact is that no QB or RB has separated themselves from the field or is doing anything unprecedented, while there are a couple of wide receivers who either have or are on pace to make history.
Allow us to explain not why a wide receiver should win NFL MVP for the first time, but why it would be a crime if one didn’t.
Who put these guys here?
Let’s take a quick look at the top of the board. Tua leads the NFL with 302 passing yards per game, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. As strong as his numbers are, the prevailing opinion is that he’s propped up by the assembly of speedy and excellent weapons around him, as well as the genius of coach Mike McDaniel.
The Miami Dolphins are also 0-2 against winning teams and could be 0-3 after this weekend when they face the Kansas City Chiefs as two-point underdogs.
Speaking of the Chiefs, Mahomes is next in line for the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Although he’s second in QBR, he’s on pace to throw for a career low in yards per game and a career high in interceptions.
Lamar Jackson is also high on the odds board but is 17th in passing yards per game
Jalen Hurts is well in the mix, but he’s also on pace for a career high in picks and is only sixth in QBR. Lamar Jackson is also high on the odds board but is 17th in passing yards per game and on pace to throw for half of the touchdowns he managed when he won the award in 2019. Plus, he’s 13th in QBR.
The only running back anywhere near the MVP conversation is Christian McCaffrey. He leads the league with 652 rushing yards and has another 292 receiving yards, and he’s scored at least one touchdown in every game. However, he’s only averaged 48.3 yards and has not exceeded 54 over the last four weeks and is dealing with an injury that seems to have derailed his MVP hopes.
So who REALLY deserves the NFL MVP? Let’s introduce you to our two primary candidates.
Honor the receivers
Fighting out of the turquoise corner, it’s Tyreek Hill. The 5-10 speedster recently became the first player in the Super Bowl era to eclipse 1,000 yards receiving in eight games and is averaging 126.8 yards per game. He’s also scored eight touchdowns and at least one in every game excluding one.
Hill is on pace to hit 2,154.8 yards and 17 touchdowns and obliterate Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record of 1,964 yards. And for the purists out there, his 16-game pace still puts him on 2,028 yards, well above Megatron’s record.
The Dolphins occupy the top spot in the AFC East and lead the league in points scored, and Hill is their primary catalyst.
Apparently, the oddsmakers only just caught on to Hill’s historic season. He recently surged to +2000 odds to win the MVP at DraftKings but is still tied for seventh.
Philadelphia Eagles wideout A.J. Brown also deserves mention. Last week, he became the first receiver in league history to record 125+ receiving yards in six straight games and averaged 138.5 yards per game during that stretch. His 939 yards and five touchdowns also put him on pace to break Johnson’s single-season record at 1,995.4 yards to go with 11 touchdowns.
The Eagles also have the best record in the NFL at 7-1 and have a chance to make their second Super Bowl in as many years.
Brown’s MVP odds? +5000. 14th-best.
This is as good a year as any to give the NFL MVP to a wide receiver. Nobody has gotten as close as Jerry Rice in 1987 (second), but with the stale QB play and ridiculous level these wideouts have hit, it’s time to give them their flowers.
