Another year of NBA on Christmas
The NBA on Christmas Day is a staple in the sports fan’s household, but which teams do recent trends suggest are worth betting on this holiday season?
It’s no fun checking your stocking and ripping open your presents just to lose out once the games start. That’s why we’ve compiled a few betting trends to know for all five games on the NBA Christmas schedule.
Starting from the top, here’s what sports bettors need to know before the NBA on Christmas tips off.
*All numbers valid as of 12/21/23. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook*
NBA Christmas Betting Trends
Milwaukee Bucks (-3) vs. New York Knicks (+3)
Need to know: The over is back in style
For years, the under was the way to go on Christmas Eve. However, the over is now 12-3 on Christmas Day over the last three years and went 5-0 in 2022.
puts recent and historical precedent on the side of the over
The Bucks also have the second-most over hits this season and are 19-8 (70.4%) in its favor. The Knicks, despite being a defensive-minded outfit, are 15-12 (55.6%) in favor of the over, which puts recent and historical precedent on the side of the over.
The star players for both teams are also on fire entering the matchup. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are averaging a combined 60.4 points in December, while Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are averaging 52.8 points.
Golden State Warriors (+4.5) vs. Denver Nuggets (-4.5)
Need to know: Defending NBA champions are 5-10 ATS in the last 15 Christmas games
The Dubs won their Christmas game last year, which marked a rare instance in which the defending champs won their Dec. 25th game. However, history suggests that fading the most recent Finals winner is actually a profitable approach.
The Warriors are also 3-1 straight up and against the spread in their last four Christmas games, whereas Denver is 0-3 ATS on Christmas during that span.
Where this gets tricky is the Nuggets are significantly better at home, and the Warriors are much worse on the road than they are in the Chase Center. But don’t kill the messenger, because the trends say to roll with the Dubs.
Boston Celtics (+2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-2)
Need to know: This is the most 50-50 game of the day
There are lots of conflicting trends to be aware of in this particular matchup. For example, the Celtics are 5-3-1 ATS when facing the Lakers with LeBron James in the lineup, but they’re only 12-12-2 ATS as the favorite this season.
the Lakers aren’t great against the spread in any circumstance
Boston, widely considered to be the best team in the league, is also just 2-8-2 ATS as an away favorite. The Lakers aren’t great against the spread in any circumstance, but are much better at home.
LeBron is the all-time leading scorer on Christmas Day and averaged 38.5 points over his last two Christmas outings, though he lost and failed to cover in both. He’s 10-7 straight up, but 1-3 ATS in his last four games on Dec. 25.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1) vs. Miami Heat (-1)
Need to know: Miami owns the Sixers
The Sixers are only 7-12-1 ATS since Jimmy Butler left the City of Brotherly Love for South Beach. Miami covered in four of their last five meetings, most recently beating Philly by 28 points as a two-point underdog in April.
Joel Embiid is in the best stretch of his career
We’d be remiss not to point out that Joel Embiid is in the best stretch of his career. He has recorded 13 straight games with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds and is averaging 41.4 points and 12.9 rebounds in December.
Will the reigning MVP overpower a familiar foe or fall flat as he usually does against Miami? Only (a very short amount of) time will tell.
Dallas Mavericks (+4) vs. Phoenix Suns (-4)
Need to know: This has all the makings of a close game
The Mavericks’ road record (9-5) is tied for the best in the Western Conference. But despite their overall success, they’re only 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
On the other side, the Suns are 4-8 ATS as a home favorite and seem to play better on the road. Both teams were in action last Christmas and covered in wins, the Suns against the Nuggets and the Mavericks against the Lakers.
There’s also an unspoken rivalry and bitterness between Devin Booker and Luka Doncic dating back to their clash in the Western Conference semifinals two years ago. These are two of the best offenses in basketball, and the game should come down to the wire, which usually favors the team that’s spotted the points.
