An NFL betting hack
Betting on Dan Campbell and Patrick Mahomes against the spread has proven to be the closest thing to free money that exists in NFL sports betting.
remained as consistent as ever
The NFL playoffs are often the hardest time of the year to get a leg up on the oddsmakers, who have an entire season of data to help set their lines. But while there have been unexpected risers and overwhelming disappointments, those two men have remained as consistent as ever.
As Campbell and Mahomes look to continue their record-setting ways, it’s tough to fully appreciate the magnitude of their success. But we tried.
Dan Campbell’s record-setting pace
The Lions hired Campbell on January 21, 2021, and charged him with the mission of bringing their floundering franchise back to relevance. The Lions endured a winless season in this century and had not won a playoff game since 1992.
Although the results did not immediately change, Campbell quickly instituted a culture of toughness and resilience complete with a palpable level of excitement. Detroit has improved its win total each year with Campbell in charge from three, to nine, to 12 wins, and finally made it to the playoffs as the third seed this year.
the best spread record of any coach since the 1970 merger
Although the former third-round pick in the 1999 NFL Draft is only 26-26-1 during his Detroit tenure, he’s an incredible 36-17 (68%) against the spread. According to ESPN Stats and Information, that’s the best spread record of any coach since the 1970 merger with at least three seasons of coaching experience.
The Lions also finished each of the last three seasons in the top four in spread results, and they covered in a league-best 68.4% of their games this season.
Detroit’s epic performances have not come as total surprises either. They were favored in 16 of 19 games this season and still found a way to go 11-5 (68.8%) ATS as a favorite.
Campbell’s next task will be knocking off the San Francisco 49ers, the first seed in the NFC. While he likely won’t care about the betting odds, he and Detroit enter as seven-point underdogs against a team that went 13-4 (9-9 ATS).
Patrick Mahomes owns the spread
Over in the AFC, Mahomes is continuing to obliterate all expectations for what any athlete can do.
Even after Tom Brady’s unbelievable reign of dominance, Mahomes has somehow put together a more impressive resume at this stage of his career. With a win against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, he’s now reached the AFC Championship Game in all six seasons that he’s been a starting quarterback.
8-3 straight-up and 9-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog
Not only is Mahomes a purebred winner, but he’s a sports bettor’s dream. The outright win against Buffalo as a three-point underdog helped him improve to 8-3 straight-up and 9-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog.
Sharp bettors will know that live betting can be extremely lucrative—the next time that Mahomes falls behind early in a game, it’s worth taking a look at his live odds.
Thanks to his own brilliance, along with the steadiness of head coach Andy Reid and playmaking of tight end Travis Kelce, Mahomes is 8-2 straight-up when trailing by seven or more points in the playoffs. Both losses were to Brady, who seems keen on making his most recent retirement his final one.
Bettors have an immediate opportunity to take Mahomes as an underdog before Sunday afternoon’s game, in which the Chiefs are 3.5-point underdogs on the road against the top seed Baltimore Ravens.