Germany the big winners in round one
As EURO 2024 enters its second week, most of the tournament favorites have emerged unscathed. There have been a few surprises though, the biggest of which came when the talented Belgians were beaten by Slovakia – the tournament’s lowest-ranked nation.
On a miserable night in Frankfurt for Belgium, they conceded as early as the seventh minute and, despite having most of the possession, could find no way past their inspired opponents. To add insult to injury, Romelu Lukaku had two ‘goals’ ruled out by VAR. With Slovakia listed at +600 for the win, it was technically the biggest upset in EURO history.
England and France both made hard work of their opening 1-0 wins
But, while there have to date been no more giant-killings, the big nations haven’t had it all their own way. Joint-favorites England and France both made hard work of their opening 1-0 wins – against Serbia and Austria respectively – and Italy had to come from behind to beat Albania 2-1.
The Albanians were at it again in the second round of games when they drew 2-2 with Croatia, scoring early to take the lead and then equalizing in the fifth minute of injury time.
But it’s the Germans who have impressed the most – dispatching Scotland 5-1 on the tournament’s opening night and then following it up with a solid 2-0 win over Hungary to earn their place in the knockout phase. On Sunday night, they drew with Switzerland to secure their path into the next round, along with the Swiss.
So far, in addition to the Germans, the bookies have been the big winners, with the favorites in most games living up to their rankings. But, as we enter week two and with knockout places up for grabs, the jeopardy increases. This was made evident on Sunday night as Scotland bowed out of the competition due to a last-minute winner from Hungary.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a selection of games where we think there is some value for bettors.
Croatia v Italy – Monday, June 24 – Leipzig
This will be interesting. The vastly experienced Croatians, who have mustered just a single point from their opening two games, versus the struggling Italians who edged past Albania but were outplayed by Spain. For Zlatko Dalic’s men, only a win will be enough to see them through to the knockout phase, while for Luciano Spalletti’s Italy a draw should be enough.
Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic thrive when the stakes are at their highest
Croatia have been here before though and have built a reputation over the last decade for constantly punching above their weight and finding a way to go deep in tournaments. Their ageing but still-brilliant midfield trio of Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, and Mateo Kovacic thrive when the stakes are at their highest and will look to dominate the nervy Italians.
For their part, Italy will still be stung by their performance against Spain. While it was only 1-0, the Spanish were the better team in every department and only poor finishing denied them a greater margin of victory. Italy’s only points came in their opener against the minnows of Albania when they limped to a 2-1 win and, so far, they have not looked like a team about to defend their EURO title.
PICK: Croatia to win (+220)
Denmark v Serbia – Tuesday, June 25 – Munich
Group C is another where it’s all still on the line. Although England look almost certain to win the group – despite performing very poorly in both games – the other places are very much up for grabs. Denmark, in particular, will fancy their chances or progressing after a great performance against the English and, while they remain in plus money, they represent decent value.
they could have, and should have, beaten England
Kasper Hjulmand’s team are well organized and disciplined, but also have talent in a squad that is packed with players from Europe’s elite leagues. They could have, and should have, beaten England.
Serbia though still have a chance of qualification. The point they gained against Slovenia in Game 2 has kept their chances alive and a win here should be enough to see them through to the knockout phase. In a team of giants – their average height is 6 feet 2 inches – they also have resilience and battling qualities which always give them a chance. Their problem against the Danes, however, is that they need goals and will therefore have to take risks. This may leave them exposed.
PICK: Denmark to win (+125)
Other picks
On Monday, if you’re looking for a value bet, look no further than the +600 on offer for a 2-0 Spain win over Albania. Spain are in dominant form and Albania will likely struggle, despite the draw they secured against Croatia.
Later in the week, England will face off against Slovenia in the final game of their group. It’s almost certain they will progress from the stage anyway, but manager Gareth Southgate will no doubt want to silence the doubters with a solid display this time around. A bet on England winning 2-0 is +450.