“Why do England always get an easy World Cup draw, eh?” asked the famous nationalist character, McGlashan, in the Scottish comedy show “Absolutely.”
“Now Scotland’s group. Scotland. Brazil. Italy, Argentina, West Germany, Uruguay, Scotland, Brazil, Argentina, West Germany, Uruguay, Brazil, Argentina. And now England’s group – Lapland. Melchester Rovers. And me and my mum!”
they very much seemed to be on the easier half of the draw in Euro 2024
It’s a recurring accusation that, coefficients aside, has been leveled at the English national team for quite a while now. When it became clear that they very much seemed to be on the easier half of the draw in Euro 2024, avoiding big hitters such as Germany, France, and Spain, it seemed that England had once again benefited from an easy route to the final.
Not that Gareth Southgate agreed, of course. “Lots of nations who we might perceive as English people to be smaller have far better records than us in terms of winning things, in getting to the latter stages in finals,” he mused before his team scraped past Switzerland in a dour game to set up their seventh-ever major semi-final.
So, is there any truth to the accusation? Well, thanks to FIFA’s data on historic country rankings, we can find out. Here’s a deep dive into just how easy England’s run was, and how it compares to other finalists in the last ten tournaments.
Euro 2024
England’s opponents and rankings: Denmark (21), Slovenia (57), Serbia (32), Slovakia (45), Switzerland (19), Netherlands (7)
Average ranking: 30.16
Spain’s opponents and rankings: Italy (10), Croatia (9), Albania (66), Georgia (74), Germany (16), France (2)
Average ranking: 29.5
Well, straight off the bat, we can see England has had a somewhat easy run, although the data doesn’t seem to think it’s much easier than Spain’s. This is somewhat colored by Albania and, in particular, Georgia dragging down the average, with the latter particularly unreflective of their performances in the actual tournament.
So, let’s see how that compares to the rest of the contenders…
2022 World Cup
France’s opponents and rankings: Denmark (10), Tunisia (30), Australia (38), Poland (26), Morocco (22), England (5)
Average ranking: 21.83
Argentina’s opponents and rankings: Poland (26), Mexico (13), Saudi Arabia (51), Australia (38), Netherlands (8), Croatia (12)
Average ranking: 24.66
Immediately, we can see here that both times had a significantly trickier time of it than either of Euro 2024’s finalists, according to the data. There aren’t as many low outliers, but even teams like Morocco were well worth of their higher placing, managing to qualify for a semi-final, and Argentina even managed to lose to the lowest-ranked team they faced. Moving on…
Euro 2020
England’s opponents and rankings: Czech Republic (40), Croatia (14), Scotland (44), Germany (12), Ukraine (24), Denmark (10)
Average ranking: 24
Italy’s opponents and rankings: Wales (17), Switzerland (13), Turkey (29), Austria (23), Belgium (1), Spain (6)
Average ranking: 14.83
Alright, maybe this does have some merit to it. England’s wasn’t especially easy here, but it was far less of a tough run than Italy, who faced no mugs and had to take on the number one ranked team in the quarter-finals. The case is building….
2018 World Cup
France’s opponents and rankings: Denmark (10), Peru (20), Australia (41), Argentina (11), Uruguay (7), Belgium (1)
Average ranking: 15
Croatia’s opponents and rankings: Argentina (11), Nigeria (44), Iceland (37), Denmark (10), Russia (48), England (5)
Average ranking: 25.83
The evidence grows. One caveat here is that after this tournament, UEFA changed the ranking rules, so this is the first occasion before the ELO system was introduced. The former systems were criticized for their inaccuracy in judging the actual ability of teams, but nonetheless, they still form a pretty good guide, and France’s route was certainly difficult both on paper and on grass.
Euro 2016
France’s opponents and rankings: Switzerland (15), Albania (42), Romania (22), Ireland (33), Iceland (34), Germany (4)
Average ranking: 25
Portugal’s opponents and rankings: Hungary (20), Iceland (34), Austria (10), Croatia (tie-27), Poland (tie-27), Wales (26)
Average ranking: 24
The evidence remains strong. Alright, both finalists had to play some right rabbles here, but Croatia was ranked lower than they probably deserved, Iceland had an excellent tournament, and France did still have to face the Germans, who were world champions at the time. Two of the easier runs teams have had here, no question about that, but still definitely tougher than England’s 2024 route. Let’s check the next couple.
World Cup 2014
Germany’s opponents and rankings: USA (13), Portugal (4), Ghana (37), Algeria (22), France (17), Brazil (3)
Average ranking: 16
Argentina’s opponents and rankings: Nigeria (41), Bosnia and Herzegovina (21), Iran (43), Switzerland (6), Netherlands (15), Belgium (11)
Average ranking: 23.33
Euro 2012
Spain’s opponents and rankings: Italy (12), Croatia (8), Ireland (18), France (14), Portugal (10)
Average ranking: 12.4
Italy’s opponent’s and rankings: Spain (1), Croatia (8), Ireland (18), England (6), Germany (3)
Average ranking: 7.2
Finalists Spain and Italy had each other in the group stage in the last Euros before they were expanded, so it’s little surprise to see they both had a hard-as-nails run, with Italy’s by far the toughest we’ve seen so far.
You can also see some limitations of the old ratings system here – Ireland was notorious for gaming it to get better qualification routes and had no business being at number 18. Nonetheless, France was ranked comparatively low by comparison, and these are some very good teams.
So, can we ever find a team that had an easier run than England?
2010 World Cup
Spain’s opponents and rankings: Chile (18), Switzerland (24), Honduras (38), Portugal (3), Paraguay (31), Germany (6)
Average ranking: 20
Netherlands’ opponents and rankings: Japan (45), Denmark (36), Cameroon (19), Slovakia (34), Brazil (1), Uruguay (16)
Average ranking: 25.16
Euro 2008
Germany’s opponents and rankings: Croatia (7), Austria (92), Poland (34), Portugal (11), Turkey (10)
Average ranking: 30.8
Spain’s opponents and rankings: Russia (9), Sweden (32), Greece (20), Italy (4), Russia (9)
Average ranking: 14.8
We got one! We did it! Germany had a very slightly easier route to the Euro 2008 final, according to the data. Congratulations, England. You are not the luckiest team of all time.
But hold on – this is almost entirely because of playing Austria in the group stages, who were ludicrously ranked at 92! Alright, they weren’t world-beaters, but that’s one place above Thailand, and below Equatorial Guinea, Libya, and Bahrain. They certainly weren’t that bad.
Austria, as hosts, didn’t have to play any qualifiers, and it cost them dearly in the rankings
Are we really going to accept that? Sure, you can quibble about the precise rankings – Russia was certainly not the ninth-best team in the world in 2008 either – but that is a ridiculous outlier. The reason is that Austria, as hosts, didn’t have to play any qualifiers, and it cost them dearly in the rankings. And Germany still had to play Portugal in the knockouts and a very good Croatia side which topped their group.
As we noted, there was some silly stuff with the rankings going on around this time. In the 2006 World Cup, the USA was ranked fifth in the world, too, padding their win rate by beating up the tiny Caribbean islands in their confederation like an Eddie Hearn fighter. Nonetheless, Italy at least had to face one serious opponent in that one in Germany, while France had a hellish Spain-Brazil-Portugal slog through the knockouts.
Well, it’s down to your interpretation. You can either claim the Austrian no-qualifiers outlier as invalidating the 2008 result, and state that England has had the easiest run to a major final of all time. Alternatively, you can simply state that the numbers don’t lie and they are merely the second-most fortunate.
There aren’t any contenders before that, really – Germany’s Paraguay-USA-South Korea route to the 2002 final isn’t exactly a gauntlet of death, but those teams did all have top 25 rankings at the time, so that certainly won’t count. Other than that, there are no other real contenders back to 1992, and before that, we don’t have any country ranking data.
That being said, here’s the final analysis of what the numbers show:
Final routes ranked from easiest to hardest:
- Germany 2008 – 30.8
- England 2024 – 30.16
- Spain 2024 – 29.5
- Argentina 2018 – 25.83
- Netherlands 2010 – 25.16
- France 2016 – 25
- Argentina 2022 – 24.66
- England 2020 – 24
- Portugal 2016 – 24
- Argentina 2014 – 23.33
- France 2022 – 21.83
- Spain 2010 – 20
- Germany 2014 – 16
- France 2018 – 15
- Italy 2020 – 14.83
- Spain 2008 – 14.8
- Spain 2012 – 12.4
- Italy 2012 – 7.2
And if we only look at knockout fixtures:
- Spain 2024 – 30.66
- Portugal 2016 – 26.66
- Netherlands 2010 – 25.16
- England 2024 – 23.66
- France 2016 – 23.66
- Croatia 2018 – 21
- Spain 2010 – 20
- Argentina 2022 – 19.33
- France 2022 – 17.66
- England 2020 – 15.33
- Germany 2014 – 14
- Spain 2012 – 12
- Argentina 2014 – 10.66
- Germany 2008 – 10.5
- Italy 2020 – 10
- Spain 2008 – 6.5
- France 2018 – 6.33
- Italy 2012 – 4.5
Once again, Georgia’s lowly rating here has dragged Spain’s current route down to, on paper, the easiest of all time. Given their performances, that might seem harsh – but those are the numbers.
So, there you have it. Is the system and model perfect? No. You’ve not had an easy run if you have to play Argentina and Brazil in the knockouts but had Lesotho and Comoros in your group. But does it give you ammunition to belittle the achievements of England? Yes. Spaniards, Scots, Welsh, and Irish of the world, feel free to make use of our cold, hard data.