A strong opposition
A week is a long time in politics as the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 US Presidential race shows.
Trump was already the favorite with sportsbooks before the incident in Butler, Pennsylvania led to his odds extending to -200 to win the November election.
in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down”
Sitting President Joe Biden then announced on Sunday that he will not seek re-election as he believes it is “in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.” He plans to provide more details about the decision later this week. Once the news began circulating, sportsbooks kept Trump as the favorite.
Potential Biden replacements
One of the reasons why Trump still has a solid lead is the uncertainty about the strength of the potential Democratic Party nominees. Biden endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris in his announcement and the 59-year-old is currently listed as the odds-on favorite with sportsbooks to secure the Democratic nomination.
The next cluster of candidates includes California Governor Gavin Newsom (+2000), former First Lady Michelle Obama (+1000), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (+2500), and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (+3300).
The Democratic National Convention takes place next month as delegates come together to decide which one they will select to try to defeat Trump in November.
A popular activity
Betting on politics is becoming more popular across the world, with many notable elections already taking place this year in countries like France and the UK. While political betting is not permitted in the regulated US market, sportsbooks in other regions offer odds.
Some operators have reported a significant level of activity on the Democratic Party nomination betting, as well as for who will ultimately win in November. Sportsbooks rarely get it wrong with US Presidential elections, with the betting favorite losing out on only two occasions since 1866, according to a report from The Conversation – the most recent was Trump (+375) defeating Hillary Clinton in 2016.