A popular option
Wagering on who will be the next president or political party in power is a popular option across the world among bettors. While this type of betting is not currently permitted through licensed sports betting platforms in the US, many people still use offshore platforms to place wagers.
both currently show that Donald Trump has more support from users
Prediction platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket are another option, allowing people to try to predict who they think will come out on top. The former currently operates legally in the US market and they both currently show that Donald Trump has more support from users than the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
These platforms are different from sportsbooks as they are exchanges in which users both place and take bets, with the operator only acting as a middleman to host the wagers, rather than acting as the house.
Calling for a ban
With the US presidential race heating up following a turbulent few weeks, the Democratic Party believes that wagering on election outcomes threatens democracy and calls into question the integrity of the electoral process.
these types of financial incentives fundamentally change the motivation of voters
They claim that these types of financial incentives fundamentally change the motivation of voters and people who have access to non-public information could trade insider information to benefit themselves.
Eight lawmakers sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to request a ban, saying the current system “is in clear conflict with the public interest” and undermines confidence.
Change possible on the horizon
The CFTC already has prediction platforms in its sights as it is currently considering if it should let Kalshi offer a market on which political party will be in charge in Congress in November. It also is levying action against PredictIt, despite granting it a license to operate in 2014 before revoking it in 2022.
Appetite exists within the CFTC to ban election betting, with members voting in May in favor of such a move. The letter from the eight Democrats supported this move. PredictIt CEO and co-Founder John Aristotle Phillips believes such a restriction is a mistake and called on the authorities to not push this “valuable activity” offshore.
