A new NFL betting phenomenon
NFL underdogs are off to a blazing start at online betting sites.
NFL Underdogs of at least 5.5 points are now 9-1 against the spread and 5-5 straight-up
The Atlanta Falcons’ shocking come-from-behind win against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football was just the latest example of David taking down Goliath. NFL Underdogs of at least 5.5 points are now 9-1 against the spread and 5-5 straight-up, which would result in a large profit for bettors.
Why is this happening and how long will the trend hold? Here’s our analysis.
Why NFL underdogs betting works
Point spreads can be deceptive for a couple of reasons.
First, the value we mentioned of 5.5 points isn’t all that different from five points, or 4.5 points, or four points.
NFL spread betting heavily deals with the importance of the critical numbers three, six, and seven. These are the most common scoring denominations and are often individually or in combination the difference between finals scores.
Eight of 16 NFL Week 2 games were decided by three, six, or seven points, including:
- Commanders 21, Giants 18
- Packers 16, Colts 10
- Jets 24, Titans 17
- Vikings 23, 49ers 17
- Seahawks 23, Patriots 20
- Raiders 26, Ravens 23
- Steelers 13, Broncos 6
- Texans 19, Bears 13
Bettors may see a 5.5-point line and take the opinion that it’s worth laying the points with the favored team without considering that there isn’t a great difference in lines between three and six points of value. That’s one way that oddsmakers can trick novice gamblers into taking unfavorable odds.
the difference between 5.5-, 6.5-, and 7.5-point lines is enormous
Conversely, the difference between 5.5-, 6.5-, and 7.5-point lines is enormous. Just as many games finished with six- or seven-point differentials as did those by more than seven points (four).
That’s the human perspective on why NFL underdogs have been so successful in betting—what about a more analytical, numbers-driven reason?
Look at the numbers
Stay with us here—numbers have meaning, and meaning has value.
NFL teams scored an average of 21.4 points per game through two weeks of actions. That’s the lowest amount since teams averaged 20.7 points per game in 2006 and a 1.83 percent decrease on the 21.8 average from last year.
When average scoring goes down, the importance of points goes up.
Let’s look at two games from Week 2. In the first, the Kansas City Chiefs failed to cover as -6.5 point favorites in a game that finished with 51 total points (26-25).
In the second, the Bears successfully covered as +6.5 underdogs in a game with 32 total points (19-13).
The line was exactly the same in both situations. However, 6.5 points equals 20.3 percent of the total points in a game with 32, compared to just 12.7 percent of a game with 51 total points.
points have more value in low-scoring games
The takeaway here is that points have more value in low-scoring games, which gives a mathematical advantage to underdogs.
Combine that with the record-low level of quarterback production (which we also analyzed), and that’s a recipe for upsets.
Looking at Week 3, half of the 16 games involve lines of at least 5.5 points. They include:
- Patriots (+6.5) at Jets
- Giants (+6.5) at Browns
- Broncos (+6.5) at Buccaneers
- Panthers (+5.5) at Raiders
- Dolphins (+5.5) at Seahawks
- Rams (+7.5) vs. 49ers
- Jaguars (+5.5) at Bills
- Commanders (+8.5) at Bengals
Three of those games have projected totals below 40 points. Those (and the line’s percentage of the points total) are:
- Patriots (17.3 percent) at Jets
- Giants (16.9 percent) at Browns
- Broncos (16.5 percent) at Buccaneers