Usyk briefly unifies division
In May of this year, Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk became the first world undisputed heavyweight boxing champion for 24 years when he beat Britain’s Tyson Fury in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Usyk started that fight as the +125 outsider and Fury as the -110 favorite.
Usyk’s reign lasted just 38 days
The sport’s purists had craved such a unification since Lennox Lewis held the first three titles in April 1990 (the WBO title was officially recognized in 2007). But such are the politics of elite-level boxing, a utopia of that kind that was never destined to endure – Usyk’s reign lasted just 38 days.
As the Ukrainian was already contracted to fight Fury in a rematch in December 2024, he was unable to make the mandatory defense of the IBF belt. As a result, the organization stripped him of the title and upgraded their then-interim belt-holder, Daniel Dubois, to full champion.
This, in turn, pitched Dubois against Anthony Joshua at a sold-out Wembley Stadium last weekend, where he won convincingly via a fifth-round knockout. It was a landscape-shifting moment for the division with Joshua starting the fight as a -500 favorite and Dubois the +360 outsider.
Initial odds for the rematch – which has not yet even been confirmed – see the odds flip, with Dubois the -225 favorite and Joshua the +180 outsider.
Dubois among the elites
As a result, Dubois instantly established himself as one of the heavyweight elites and, in the process, edged Joshua toward the periphery of the division where he has spent almost a decade as either world champion or number one contender.
In the time that Joshua was among that elite group, alongside him were Deontay Wilder and Fury. Between them, they dominated the division with only minor interruptions.
Wilder’s best days are now behind him having suffered terribly at (and by) the hands of Fury
But things are changing. Wilder’s best days are now behind him having suffered terribly at (and by) the hands of Fury and failing to overcome Joseph Parker and Zhilei Zhang. And then, of course, Fury’s defeat by Usyk in May threw another giant spanner in the works.
New faces appear in the picture
During the Joshua/Wilder/Fury era – in which the much-discussed Joshua/Fury matchup failed to materialize – others, like Parker and Zhang, threatened to gatecrash the party without actually doing so. But now Usyk and Dubois haven’t just gatecrashed it, they’re in and are threatening to throw out some of the existing elites. A changing of the guard now seems inevitable.
While Usyk was stripped of his IBF title, he still holds the WBO, WBA, and WBC belts and is scheduled to meet Fury again just before Christmas. What happens then – and he’s currently -150 favorite – will dictate the future of the division.
Defeat for 36-year-old Fury would possibly signal the end for the Gypsy King, who has already talked openly about retirement, but also feels he has a wrong to right.
firmly believed their man won the fight
The split decision defeat in Riyadh left a bitter taste in the mouths of the Fury camp, who firmly believed their man won the fight and that it had been influenced by the fact Ukraine is currently at war.
So, despite Fury being the outsider now, there will be massive intent on his part to reclaim his place in the elite group and prolong his stay there. Defeat and it’s hard to see an obvious route back if indeed he wants one.
Usyk holding all the cards
Let’s not forget, at 37 years old, even victory for Usyk will leave questions unanswered. Particularly when the Ukrainian has already spoken of struggling to make the heavyweight weight and the possibility of ending his career where he started – as a cruiserweight.
However, this decision may also be influenced by the millions of dollars that will almost certainly be on offer for another defense and maybe even another chance to unify the four different belts. Either way, the win over Fury, and another over him in December, would leave him front and center of the division and arm him with some tremendous bargaining power – a priceless commodity in this sport.
The Ukrainian will also find a chirpy young Brit snapping at his heels very soon. Dubois’ win over Joshua was brutal in its execution and despite entering the fight as a big underdog, he fought like a champion.
Dubois went out blazing from round one and put pressure on Joshua on a level he’s rarely experienced. Before the fifth-round knockdown, he had already rattled the Brit with uppercuts and heavy body blows and scored knockdowns in Rounds 1, 3, and 4. All with little in reply.
Dubois no quitter
It’s been a tough road for the 27-year-old Dubois who was unfairly labeled a quitter after a 2020 knockout loss to fellow Brit Joe Joyce. At the time it appeared he had taken a knee and stayed down for the count in the latter stages of the fight after taking some punishment, but was later revealed he had suffered a double orbital fracture to his eye and was unable to see.
Similar accusations were thrown at Dubois in 2023 when he was beaten by Usyk and, again, he took a knee late on in the fight – twice this time. After the second he stayed down for the count.
96,000 sell-out at Wembley Stadium
But now with a world championship belt around his waist, earned by a performance of courage and skill, those doubts have been put to bed. He’s a champion in his own right and has proven that he can handle the biggest of occasions as they don’t come much bigger than a 96,000 sell-out at Wembley Stadium.
The Joshua camp is understandably talking up a re-match, and in the ultra-commercial world of boxing, this would make sense for both sides.
What next for Fury?
We have already touched on the potential impact of Fury losing his December rematch to Usyk, but what if he upsets the odds? It wouldn’t be the first time.
Fury’s rollercoaster career has proven if nothing else, that the warrior spirit in him is alive and kicking. From somehow overcoming a 12th-round knockdown by Wilder to battling back to fitness after failed drug tests and substance abuse issues, Fury has hauled himself back from the brink on numerous occasions.
Therefore, to overcome Usyk in December when most pundits are predicting defeat would just be another against-all-odds achievement to add to the long list.
But this version of Fury is showing signs of fatigue after a very long career in the sport – he turned pro 16 years ago. Even before the Usyk defeat, he struggled to overcome former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou and was knocked down by him in the third round. That was followed by the Usyk fight where he was outboxed and, at times, outmuscled by the Ukrainian.
Fury/Joshua match-up has been close but not close enough
Whether or not the endgame is approaching for Fury remains to be seen, but there is still unfinished business. The much-vaunted Fury/Joshua match-up has been close but not close enough and would be a fitting way to end a stellar career. Maybe, just maybe, that alone will be the motivation Fury needs to beat Usyk in December.
Where does Joshua go from here?
All of the above, of course, depends on Joshua’s next move. He and his camp were clearly stung and surprised by the Dubois defeat but it’s not the first time the 34-year-old Brit has failed to deliver on the biggest stage.
Disappointments don’t come much bigger than his shock knockout defeat by an out-of-shape Andy Ruiz Jr. in 2019 – a fight Ruiz started as a -2500 favorite. And then there were the two defeats by Usyk.
On the plus side, he responded well to both of those defeats in respective rematches, beating Ruiz and, while losing again to Usyk, performing much better in fight number two. This, perhaps, offers hope for Joshua if the rematch can be brokered, and if he can learn from the first fight and find a way to counter Dubois’ ultra-aggressive approach.
It would then leave the door open for that showdown with Fury, while defeat for Joshua would leave him 0-4 against the two fighters who are now heading up the heavyweight division. That would be a difficult place to come back from.
Parker awaits his chance
Awaiting his chance to gatecrash the party is New Zealander Parker who, over the last ten months, has positioned himself as one of the leading contenders for a world title shot in 2025.
Last December, he achieved a career-best win when he beat Wilder on points. While in some quarters it was seen as a win against an opponent whose best days are gone, Parker set that record straight with a statement win over Zhilei Zhang in Saudi Arabia four months later.
So, having put two of the world’s best to the sword in a short space of time, the question marks that for so long formed part of the narrative around Parker should now be erased. At 32 years old, he is reaching his prime and 2025 could be the year he finally makes that final step.
Kabayel in the picture
Germany’s Agit Kabayel is another who has thrown his hat into the ring as the division looks for new heroes. The 32-year-old has fought professionally just 25 times but has won 17 by knockout and entered the big time last year with an impressive fourth-round stoppage of the talented Russian Arslanbek Makhmudov.
He followed up that underdog victory with another in May over Cuba’s undefeated Frank Sanchez – this time by a seventh-round knockout.
a genuine contender for whom 2025 could be a massive year
The German’s stock has risen massively as a result of these two wins and has emerged, alongside Parker, as a genuine contender for whom 2025 could be a massive year. When the shake-up begins after the Usyk/Fury rematch in December, he will be one of the names in the frame.
2025 could be huge for Bakole
Also awaiting his chance to mix it with the world’s elite is Congolese heavyweight Martin Bakole. While a defeat by Michael Hunter in 2018 set Bakole back a couple of years, his progress since has been impressive with a long string of wins achieved in some style.
His sheer size and power in both hands have turned him into a dangerous fighter, and a statement knockout win over hot US prospect Jared Anderson last month has further accelerated his progress.
He probably needs another win or two over elite-level opponents to be considered a front-line contender but he’s not far away. He’s another for whom 2025 could be massive.
Zhang refuses to go away
One potential opponent for Bakole is Zhang who, despite being 41 years of age, still hovers around the edges of the elite group. Cumbersome and lumbering he may be, and question marks remain around his ability to go the distance, but he has undoubted power coupled with good technical ability.
It was only two years ago that he entered the conversation when he controversially and narrowly lost to Filip Hrgovic.
sensational knockout win over Wilder
He followed this up with two consecutive stoppage wins over Joe Joyce but his progress was halted in his next fight when Parker exposed his flaws. But just when it looked as if he had run out of road, in June he produced a sensational knockout win over Wilder to re-assert himself in the division.
He remains very much the wildcard of the bunch but his explosive punching keeps the big promoters interested, and it may be he faces off with Bakole in a battle of the contenders.
Either way, 2025 promises to be huge in the heavyweight division, and much will unravel once we know the victor of Usyk versus Fury. Then the negotiating can begin in earnest.