People place bets as lives crumble
As the devastating wildfires continue to rage in the Los Angeles area, local residents are only beginning the process of even figuring out how to recover. At least ten people have died and around 10,000 structures, including entire neighborhoods, have been destroyed. Lives have been upended, memories burned to ash.
18 different wagers related in some way to the wildfires
Like with any tragedy, there are those who seek to profit from people’s pain. Enter Polymarket. Best known as a platform on which gamblers could bet on the 2024 US presidential election, the popular prediction market has 18 different wagers related in some way to the wildfires.
The market that first caught people’s attention was “Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday?” which, considering it is now Friday afternoon, has bottomed out at 0%. But Polymarket has added many other betting options, drawing the understandable ire of the public.
Public expresses its disgust
Because the L.A. wildfires are far from contained, Polymarket has expanded its offerings. Among the cynical betting options are “How many acres will Palisades wildfire burn in total?” and “When will the Palisades wildfire be 50% contained?”
Social media users have expressed their outrage at both Polymarket and people who think it is appropriate to wager on such a catastrophe. On X, user “brndxix” wished nothing but the worst for Polymarket, writing: “when your company goes bankrupt we’re throwing wagyu on the grill.”
Poster @tylersteinhrdt posed a question that many seem to be thinking: “Doesn’t this incentivize someone to start a fire in Santa Monica out of their own financial interest?”
Lauren Joffe, who has a podcast called “The Spin Zone,” minced no words:
While the vast majority of social media posts, whether on X, Bluesky Social, Facebook, or elsewhere, are full of disgust, and for good reason, some have at least a slight optimistic or humorous angle.
Someone posting on the account @a_real_society opined: “Polymarket has the potential to turn insider trading into a net good, if enough people think a bad thing will happen they can bet that it will, if it becomes economically viable to stop or prevent a problem someone can bet on themselves to fix it and get a nice payout.”
And Armand Domalewski got creative, naturally linking Los Angeles to a movie script:
Polymarket’s spin control
For its part, Polymarket is trying to mitigate the developing public wrath, noting that it is not taking a fee on any of the L.A. wildfire betting markets. Of course, that does not mean that Polymarket won’t make money from this, as people use these markets to either enter the site or to motivate them to keep their money there. Polymarket is not losing money on this.
attempting to make its service out to be some sort of admirable endeavor
Polymarket also has a note on the wildfire betting pages, attempting to make its service out to be some sort of admirable endeavor that can help people.
“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events impacting society,” Polymarket wrote. “The devastating Pacific Palisades fire is one such event, for which Polymarket can yield invaluable real-time answers to those directly impacted in ways traditional media cannot.”
That last part about “invaluable real-time answers to those directly impacted” is clearly a load of BS, as what a bunch of gamblers think will happen is in no way better than updates and reports from local media, local governments, and emergency services.