Back in power
With Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second term as President of the United States on Monday, people are rightfully speculating about how the world might change over the next four years.
try to predict what significant shifts might happen
While the gambling sector pales in significance compared to more serious issues, we decided to look ahead and try to predict what significant shifts might happen in the coming years with Trump in office.
Reining in grey area gambling sites
One of Trump’s biggest promises in the lead-up to his inauguration is imposing tariffs on goods and services coming from other countries. He wants businesses to return to America by introducing hefty charges on imports.
$13.3bn in potential tax revenue is lost to black market gambling every year
Grey market gambling is still a major revenue driver for offshore companies which target US residents in states where little to no legal online gambling exists. An estimated $13.3bn in potential tax revenue is lost to black market gambling every year in the US, with Trump likely trying to plug this hole and funnel the money through the US tax system.
In addition to the obvious online casinos and sportsbooks, other entities that could be targeted over the coming years are sweepstakes casinos, prediction betting sites, and unlicensed daily fantasy sports platforms.
While these operators won’t be dealing with tariffs, it is likely that threats of legal action and hefty penalties could make it too risky for them to continue operating in the US.
Crypto boom
While not directly linked to the gambling sector, it looks like Trump will embrace cryptocurrencies in the coming years. The release of the Trump Coin has already caused pandemonium in recent days, with its price skyrocketing to almost $75 from $9 in just under 48 hours before falling back.
In addition to the average Joe jumping into speculation in the cryptocurrency market, which people like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon see as more akin to gambling than investing, there’s a good chance that licensed gambling sites will start embracing digital currencies.
will risk falling behind as cryptocurrency adoption by the general public becomes more prevalent
The advantages of cryptocurrency payments are obvious, with their lightning-quick speeds, which is why Bitcoin casinos and sportsbooks have grown in popularity in recent years. Regulated gambling sites not embracing cryptocurrencies will risk falling behind as cryptocurrency adoption by the general public becomes more prevalent.
More widespread iGaming
In addition to cracking down on grey market gambling sites, it is likely that Trump will encourage states to legalize iGaming.
only seven states currently offering legal online casinos
The 78-year-old was at the helm when the federal ban on sports betting ended in May 2018. While 38 states now have sportsbooks in some form, iGaming has lagged well behind, with only seven states currently offering legal online casinos.
If a crackdown on grey market gambling occurs, this leaves a big opportunity for states with legal iGaming products. The advantages of legalization could outweigh the downsides enough in lawmakers’ minds that a flurry of states could introduce the activity.
Indiana and Wyoming have already introduced bills this year, and other states are likely to follow suit.
No taxes on tips
Another major campaign promise from Trump was to eliminate taxes on tips. While it’s unclear what exact form this would take, the idea certainly won him plenty of support in Nevada, a major swing state.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts that removing federal taxes from tips could lead to a $150bn-$120bn drop in federal revenue over the first decade.Workers in the land-based gambling sector are often very reliant on tips to supplement their low hourly wages. Dealers, cleaners, and restaurant workers would welcome any boost to their take-home pay during a time when the cost of living is so high.
