Chiefs favorites for Super Bowl LIX
The team that enters the game as the favorite tends to win the Super Bowl. That’s obvious. The bookies get it right more than they get it wrong. It’s their job. But not always.
While the favorite has won 39 of the 58 Super Bowls, that means that on 19 occasions, the underdog has triumphed. And, more often than not, it’s the underdog that creates the biggest story. They can also make some big bucks for the bettors while slaying the bookies.
Kansas City Chiefs are currently narrow -133 favorites
For Super Bowl LIX (Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 6:30pm ET), the Kansas City Chiefs are currently narrow -133 favorites, with the Philadelphia Eagles the slight underdogs at +105. It is a game that, as the odds suggest, could go either way. So there will be no huge surprises either way and bettors who are looking for value will have to look beyond the win/lose wager.
But this hasn’t always been the case. Down the track, there have been some huge outsiders who have triumphed on Super Bowl day.
Even more value can be had by identifying a potential Super Bowl winner before the start of the regular season – and we’ll take a closer look at that later in this piece – but first, let’s see which teams have taken the bookies to the cleaners on Super Bowl day.
Listed below are the five biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, based on their double-digit point spreads:
5. Denver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24. 1998 (+11)
This was redemption day for Broncos’ then 37-year-old Hall of Fame quarterback, John Elway. After suffering three heartbreaking Super Bowl defeats in 1987, 1988, and 1990 he finally led Denver to victory against the heavily-favored Packers.
This was never more than a one-score game – close throughout – but it was the Broncos who edged ahead in the second quarter when they were able to convert two turnovers to go ahead 17–7. But the Packers hit back hard and cut the score to just 17–14 by halftime.
The second half followed a similar pattern to the first with Green Bay matching Denver blow for blow and with 13:31 remaining in the game, it was tied. Both defenses were in dominant form until Broncos star running back Terrell Davis ran for the key touchdown to put his team ahead with just 1:45 left.
Afterward, it was revealed that Davis was suffering from a migraine headache, which saw him miss most of the second quarter, but he still went on to be named the Super Bowl MVP. Overall, he ran for 157 yards, caught two passes for eight yards, and scored three rushing touchdowns – a Super Bowl record. He remains the most recent running back to be named a Super Bowl MVP.
4. Kansas Chiefs 23, Minnesota Vikings 7. 1970 (+13.5)
One year after the New York Jets pulled off a huge upset by beating the then-Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III (more on that to come), the Chiefs went on to prove that the AFL could consistently produce championship-winning teams by beating the Vikings in Super Bowl IV.
Under very wet conditions in New Orleans, the Chiefs’ defense completely dominated Super Bowl IV, limiting Minnesota’s offense to just 67 rushing yards, picking off three passes, and recovering two Vikings’ fumbles.
Kansas City’s quarterback Len Dawson became the fourth consecutive winning QB to be named the Super Bowl’s MVP, completing 12 out of 17 passes for 142 yards, including one touchdown and one interception. He also rushed three times for 11 yards.
first Super Bowl to have one of the coaches linked up to a microphone
This game was also made extra memorable by being the first Super Bowl to have one of the coaches linked up to a microphone, with the Chiefs’ Hank Stram giving fans a unique insight into the game.
3. New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17. 2008 (+12)
This one was huge. The Patriots were just 35 seconds away from the only perfect 19-0 season in the history of the NFL when Giants’ wide receiver Plaxico Burress hauled in an Eli Manning pass from 13 yards out for the winning touchdown.
New England, which had beaten the Giants 38-35 in their final regular season game to complete the NFL’s first 16-0 season, took a 14-10 lead with 2:42 left when Randy Moss caught Tom Brady’s six-yard pass.
But 2:42 is a long time in football and the Giants responded with a fine 83-yard drive, which included David Tyree’s iconic “Helmet Catch” on a crucial third down – Tyree making an incredible one-handed catch by pinning the football to the top of his helmet. It made for a vital 32-yard first-down conversion.
The drive, which is often regarded as the greatest in NFL history, concluded with Burress scoring that 13-yard winning touchdown.
2. New England Patriots 20, St. Louis Rams 17. 2002 (+14)
This was the great Tom Brady’s first season as a starting quarterback, but despite his inexperience and the Patriots being massive underdogs, he led them to their first-ever Super Bowl title.
At the time, the high-flying Rams were considered unbeatable and had earned themselves the nickname “The Greatest Show on Turf”; hence, they started the game as massive favorites.
But the defense-minded Patriots turned three turnovers into a crucial 17-3 lead before Rams’ quarterback Kurt Warner responded with two late fourth-quarter touchdowns to tie the game with 1:30 left on the clock.
Brady put together a sensational game-winning drive
The legendary NFL commentator John Madden suggested that New England should play for overtime, but instead, Brady put together a sensational game-winning drive. The Patriots went 53 yards in nine plays to set up Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning 48-yard field goal as time expired.
For the Patriots, this was just the start. They went on to win five more Super Bowls under Brady, who himself added another to his résumé when he moved to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For the Rams, it was to be a long wait for their next Super Bowl – 20 years, in fact, and came only after they had returned to Los Angeles.
1. New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7. 1969 (+18)
All of the above games were massive bookie-busters, but none were as big as this. Before the game, Jets’ quarterback “Broadway Joe” Namath famously predicted the AFL champions would go on to beat the heavily favored NFL champions, the Baltimore Colts, but few believed him.
But in true David versus Goliath style, the Jets’ defense performed heroically to back up the words of their QB, forcing five turnovers, including four interceptions – three from Baltimore starter Earl Morrall and one from his backup, future Hall of Famer Johnny Unitas.
As a result, the Jets had a narrow 7-0 halftime lead but built upon it in the third and fourth quarters to stretch it to 16-0. The Colts managed to get on the board with a touchdown with 3:32 left but it was too little too late.
In the final analysis, Namath completed 17 of his 28 passes for 206 yards and while there were no touchdowns, there were also crucially no interceptions. He went on to be awarded the game’s MVP – the first player in Super Bowl history to win the award without scoring a touchdown or throwing a touchdown pass.
Patriots and Raiders flatter to deceive
All of the above would have been good for punters and bad for bookies, but for big wins, it’s all about predicting who is going to win the Super Bowl before a ball has been kicked or thrown.
But that’s a tough one to pick … the current Kansas City Chiefs aside.
If we take the 2024 season, the first few weeks of the campaign saw plenty of upsets with underdogs regularly beating the favorites and promising great things for the four months ahead.
struggling Las Vegas Raiders were able to get past the highly regarded Baltimore Ravens
For example, the unfancied New England Patriots used their strong rushing game to beat Joe Burrow’s much-fancied Cincinnati Bengals on their home turf in Week 1, while the struggling Las Vegas Raiders were able to get past the highly regarded Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson et al, in Week 2.
But neither team was able to build on that, and their early season promise soon dissipated. Neither made it to the playoffs; the Patriots finished at the bottom of the AFC East and the Raiders the bottom of the AFC West.
Pre-season bookie busters
A good pre-season and/or even a flying start to the regular season means little in the final countdown, which makes predicting a Super Bowl team difficult. In the real world, it’s rare for a preseason underdog team to beat the odds and go all the way to the Super Bowl. But it does happen.
The trick for the punters is identifying those teams.
In the last 50 years, only a handful of teams with very long preseason odds, +3000 or higher, have gone on to scale the dizzying heights of Super Bowl glory.
In 1980, the Oakland Raiders were listed at +3500 before shocking the sports world by winning Super Bowl XV. Two seasons later, Washington, also listed at +3500, repeated the feat.
The first team to win the Super Bowl in the 21st century from a similarly low starting point was the 2008 New York Giants (Super Bowl number 3 above) when they beat the Patriots.
But there have been some even bigger surprises. Four of them.
This time we have based our list on their pre-season moneylines:
#4. Philadelphia Eagles 2017-18
[Pre-season odds +4000. Regular-season record: 13-3]
The story of the 2017-18 Philadelphia Eagles is one that will not be forgotten by football fans for a long time.
Against all odds, and with many obstacles en route to the Super Bowl, the Eagles produced one the greatest seasons in the franchise’s history to beat Tom Brady’s indomitable New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
Their 41-33 win was achieved with backup quarterback Nick Foles leading the team – a position he held since Week 14 when starting QB Carson Wentz tore an anterior cruciate ligament
the job was handed to Foles to the end of the regular season and beyond
Prior to that, Wentz had reeled off 11 wins out of 13 games – quite an achievement after a very modest 7-9 record as a starter in his rookie season – but after his injury, the job was handed to Foles to the end of the regular season and beyond.
Their improbable run to the Super Bowl, and then their doubly improbable win over Brady’s Patriots made for one NFL’s great stories, and the Eagles’ first championship since 1960.
#3. San Francisco 49ers 1981-82
[Pre-season odds: +5000. Regular-season record: 13-3]
The modern-day San Francisco 49ers is a franchise that is used to winning and, while this past season was not kind to them, it is an organization that is geared for success.
But back in 1981, things were very different. The Niners had gone eight consecutive seasons without reaching the playoffs and had only achieved a winning campaign once during that period.
But the 1981-82 season was completely different. Almost out of the blue, they managed to win 15 of their final 16 games across the regular and post-season and, in Super Bowl XVI, beat the Cincinnati Bengals 26-21. This achievement was even more remarkable given that after the first three games of the season they had a 1-2 record.
It is widely recognized that this was the season when everything changed for the 49ers. In the 14 seasons that followed, they went on to win five Super Bowls.
It was a team that leaned heavily on safety Ronnie Lott – a future Hall of Famer who, one season earlier, was the 8th pick in the draft – and legendary quarterback Joe Montana, who was the 49ers starting QB for the first time. Both went on to be NFL greats.
#2. New England Patriots 2001-02
[Pre-season odds: +6000. Regular-season record: 11-5]
Like the 49ers above, the New England Patriots were struggling, but in 2001 they were about to take their first steps in starting a sports dynasty. The 2001-02 season was just their second under head coach Bill Belichick, and in season one they finished a lowly fifth place in the AFC East.
But the emergence of a young, brilliant quarterback by the name of Tom Brady changed everything, even though he started that season as the backup.
Belichick turned to his sixth-round pick from the 2000 draft and the rest is history
Drew Bledsoe was the starter – he had signed a ten-year, $102.8m contract extension before the season began – but was injured in the second game. So Belichick turned to his sixth-round pick from the 2000 draft and the rest is history. Brady started the final 14 games that season and put together a fantastic 11-3 record.
He took the Patriots all the way to Super Bowl XXXVI where, against the odds, they defeated the St. Louis Rams 20-17. Over the next 17 seasons, New England won 15 division titles and five Super Bowls in eight appearances.
#1. St. Louis Rams 1999-2000
[Pre-season odds: +15000. Regular-season record: 13-3]
In the 1999-2000 season, the Rams had been in St. Louis Rams for a decade – they were originally based in Los Angeles (and are now again) – and had not made it beyond the end of the regular season in that time.
But under the leadership of head coach Dick Vermeil, all of this changed dramatically. Against all the odds, they had a perfect season at home and lost just three games on the road, finishing the regular season with an impressive 13-3 record.
With quarterback Kurt Warner leading the way with an incredible 4,353 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, the Rams produced one of the great sports surprises: going all the way to Super Bowl XXXIV where they beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16.
For Warner, it was to be the first of his two MVP awards in three campaigns but ironically, he wasn’t even supposed to be the starting QB in 1999-2000. Original starter Trent Green tore his ACL in the pre-season, leading to an opportunity that Warner grabbed with both hands.
Also included in the Rams’ wider group that season were offensive coordinator Mike Martz, running back Marshall Faulk, and wide receivers Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ricky Proehl.
For this new-look Rams offense, it was the start of three stellar seasons, during which “The Greatest Show on Turf” scored 500 points each year.