Some big European nights incoming…
The new 2024-25 UEFA Champions League (UCL) format has added several different layers to the competition, not to mention many more games (which, ultimately, is what it was all about).
It means that teams that finished in 9th to 24th in the regular-season league table now face a two-legged playoff tie for their place in the competition’s round-of-16. The first leg of these games will be played on February 11-12, with the second leg coming one week later on February 18-19.
Then, on Friday, February 21, UEFA will hold a draw that includes the eight winners and the eight sides that secured automatic spots in the round of 16.
UCL final takes place at Munich’s Allianz Arena
From thereon in, the format will follow the traditional knockout pattern until two teams are left. The UCL final takes place at Munich’s Allianz Arena on Saturday, May 31.
But there is a long way to go before then and some of Europe’s giants are guaranteed to fall by the wayside – some of them in this playoff round.
So, who’s in the mix and who are the favorites to progress to the round-of-16? Let’s take a look at each of the first-leg games:
Brest vs. Paris-Saint Germain
(Tuesday, February 11, 12:45pm ET)
This all-French affair starts, unsurprisingly, with PSG as big -240 favorites to win and progress to the next round. But this isn’t a vintage PSG team and this campaign hasn’t been plain sailing – hence them ending up in the playoffs.
After winning just one of their opening five games in the league phase of the competition, during which time they scored just three goals, things looked bleak for the Parisiens. But they finished strongly, ending with three straight wins – scoring 11 goals in those games – and finishing in 15th place.
For bookies and pundits, this appears little more than a foregone conclusion – PSG have won on their last seven visits to the Stade Francis-Le Ble including a 5-2 win on February 1 – but this Brest team is on an amazing journey and will not roll over.
Brest 2 PSG 5. Gonçalo Ramos #SB29PSG pic.twitter.com/6vXbN9jEkN
— Football24/7 (@foet247europa) February 1, 2025
This is Brests’ first-ever European game against a French team and their first-ever season playing in European competition. They used the momentum from last season in the opening games of the UCL campaign, making a stunning start by going unbeaten in the competition until their 3-0 defeat in Barcelona in November.
Since then, they have found life tough, both domestically and in Europe, and have struggled to cope with the intensity of a UCL campaign while remaining competitive in Ligue 1.
Pick: PSG to win (-240)
Juventus vs. PSV Eindhoven
(Tuesday, February 11, 3pm ET)
This has been an impressive campaign for Peter Bosz’s PSV team, whose 4-2-2 record in the league phase surprised many experts and pundits. Even more impressive was that on Matchday 8 they pulled off the win-of-the-round by beating Liverpool to end their chance of a perfect record. While it was against a weakened Reds team, the performance and result were still impressive.
Unfortunately for Eindhoven, they have been delivered a blow ahead of this tie with an injury to star striker, USA international Ricardo Pepi. His knee problem has significantly reduced their potency in the attacking third, and in order to have a chance of getting through this match with a draw or a win, they will need to find a way to replace his goal-scoring threat.
impressive 2-0 win over Manchester City
For Juve, it has been an up-and-down campaign as reflected by their 3-3-2 record. The highlight, though, was a very impressive 2-0 win over Manchester City in December when substitutes Weston McKennie and Timothy Weah came off the bench to win the game for them.
Juve starts this one as narrow favorites (-105), but the value is with PSV finding a solution to their Pepi problem and sneaking an away win. It largely depends on which Juventus team turns up on the night, but PSV has a chance here.
Pick: PSV to win (+330)
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
(Tuesday, February 11, 3pm ET)
This one promises to be a firecracker. But two of Europe’s giants going head-to-head before the competition even reaches the round-of-16 stage tells you that neither has had the type of campaign they are used to.
In fact, it was the nightmare draw that both teams dreaded – the winners of the 2022-23 UCL versus the champions from 2023-24. In the recent past, on the three occasions when these two have met in the knockout stages, the winners have gone on to lift the trophy.
Man City vs Real Madrid in the Champions League playoffs
— Real Madrid vs Man City live Stream (@usavswalestv) February 9, 2025
Manchester City is going head to head with Real Madrid starting on 11 Feb 2025 at 20:00 UTC at Etihad Stadium stadium, Manchester city, England. The match is a part of the UEFA Champions League, Knockout Phase.#UEFA pic.twitter.com/HHwiztRYtU
But City’s struggles have been well documented, and a defensive fragility rarely seen in a Guardiola team has cost them dearly both in this competition and also domestically, where they have no chance of defending their EPL title.
It is a huge clash, but even Real’s 5-0-3 record compared to City’s 3-2-3 doesn’t see them start as favorite. Instead, they are +188 outsiders. City is +135 for the win and for them, this is a huge opportunity to salvage what has turned into a disastrous season. But they have struggled at the Etihad and the value is with Los Blancos.
Pick: Real Madrid to win (+188)
Sporting CP vs. Borussia Dortmund
(Tuesday, February 11, 3pm ET)
It’s been a campaign of two halves for Sporting. In the first half, they were excellent and looked to be coasting to a top-eight finish after a thrilling 4-1 win over Manchester City on Matchday 4.
But then coach Ruben Amorim left for City’s neighbor Manchester United and everything changed. Sporting struggled to retain their early momentum and faced elimination from the competition after three straight losses, but were saved by Conrad Harder’s late equalizer against Bologna on Matchday 8.
third head coach in less than a year
But it’s not just Sporting that has suffered a coaching crisis. BVB is also suffering similar problems in its technical area, with Niko Kovac becoming the club’s third head coach in less than a year after replacing the sacked Nuri Sahin last week.
Let’s not forget, BVB was last season’s UCL finalist – losing to Real Madrid in the showpiece – but has had a poor Bundesliga season. They have saved their best form for the UCL, though, and their 5-0-3 record saw them comfortably qualify for the playoffs.
The German team is the favorite to progress, but Sporting, with home advantage, is the favorite to win the first leg (+126) and looks to be the value bet.
Pick: Sporting to win (+126)
Club Brugge vs Atalanta
(Wednesday, February 12, 12:45pm ET)
Brugge was able to seal its playoff place with one game to spare after a campaign that included wins over Aston Villa and Sporting CP and a draw with Juventus. They even threatened to win at the Etihad, leading Manchester City 1-0 on Matchday 8 before eventually losing 3-1.
But it starts as a +275 underdog against Atalanta which, under the guidance of Gian Piero Gasperini has become one of Europe’s most consistent teams, both in domestic and European competition. Last season, they made it to the Europa Cup final, where they comfortably beat German champions Bayer Leverkusen.
Club Brugge pick up their third win of 2024/25 🔵⚫#UCL pic.twitter.com/R2oS69Iv04
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) December 10, 2024
Atalanta is a team that is full of goals and, crucially, has retained the strike force that took them to Europa League glory, namely Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketalaere, and Mateo Retegu.
It’s also worth noting the Nerazzurri only missed out on a place in the top eight of the Champions League table by a single point and can consider themselves unlucky to have missed out with an impressive 4-3-1 record.
But, while it’s hard to see past Atalanta over the two legs, there have been enough good performances so far by Brugge to suggest that they can take a lead to Italy ahead of next week’s second leg. At +275, they look great value for the home win.
Pick. Club Brugge to win (+275)
Celtic vs. Bayern Munich
(Wednesday, February 12, 3pm ET)
This one promises to be a massive night at Celtic Park. While the Bhoys have ruled the roost in Scottish domestic soccer for a very long time, they and their supporters crave success in Europe – success that has eluded them since winning the European Cup back in 1967.
But these are the type of nights that Celtic fans live for and Celtic Park will crackle ahead of the visit of the mighty Bayern. Nowhere in Europe is likely to rival that atmosphere.
Whether that alone will be enough to see Celtic take a lead back to Bavaria remains to be seen – Bayern has better players – but the Germans will be in for a challenging evening.
next May’s final taking place in their home stadium
As it has transpired, this draw could have been much worse for Bayern as they could have been paired with Manchester City. A trip to Glasgow, certainly from a technical perspective, is a much more palatable prospect. They also have the added incentive of next May’s final taking place in their home stadium.
Celtic has already suffered a bruising experience this season against German opposition back in October, when they were beaten 7-1 by Borussia Dortmund in Signal Iduna Park, so the club will be wary of the damage Bayern can inflict if they are too gung-ho.
Therefore, at +450 there is a strong argument for this one ending in a low-scoring draw.
Pick: Celtic and Bayern Munich to draw (+450)
Feyenoord vs. AC Milan
(Wednesday, February 12, 3pm ET)
Feyenoord was not expected to progress beyond the league phase of this season’s Champions League but has ended up being one of the surprise teams of the tournament.
Despite losing manager Arne Slot to Liverpool last summer, the team has performed well against some good opposition and ended the regular season with a winning 4-1-3 record.
Santiago Giménez becomes the first Mexican player to score a Serie A goal for Milan 🇲🇽🫡 pic.twitter.com/rWER0tuUZ0
— B/R Football (@brfootball) February 8, 2025
Without Gimenez’s firepower, Feyenoord may lack an attacking threat, but the De Kuip Stadium can be an intimidating place on European nights.
Milan’s 5-0-3 record saw them qualify comfortably for the playoff round but they are not in great form and are languishing down in seventh in Serie A. At +200 for the home win the value is with the Dutch side.
Pick: Feyenoord to win (+200)
Monaco vs. Benfica
(Wednesday, February 12, 3pm ET)
This one is arguably the toughest of the eight games to call. Both teams finished the regular season with identical 4-1-3 records and were only separated in the table by goal difference. But it is a clash of styles.
prone to defensive howlers
Adolf Hutter’s Monaco team is youthful and, as a result, has been inconsistent. While Bruno Lage’s Benfica is more experienced and, at times, exciting, they are also prone to defensive howlers, as witnessed in their incredible 5-4 home defeat by Barcelona on Matchday 8.
They do, however, have players who are used to big European nights, like Argentinian World Cup winners Nicolás Otamendi and Angel di Maria, and over the two legs, this is likely to give them a significant advantage.
With the second leg taking place in the fiery atmosphere of the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon, it is hard to see past Benfica progressing, but they also look to be the value bet for the first leg at +200 compared to Monaco’s +133.
Pick: Benfica to win (+200)