Down to the last 16…
The route to the last 16 of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League (UCL) may have been different this season but from here on out, the remaining teams are back in familiar territory.
The new format has added several different layers to the competition, not to mention many more games (which is what it was all about), but now we finally have reached the winner-takes-all Round-of-16. No more playoffs, no more second chances.
Last week’s playoff games produced eight victors that have been drawn against the teams that secured automatic spots by finishing in the top eight in the first-phase league table.
the Champions League final taking place in Munich’s Allianz Arena
The Round-of-16 matches will take place March 4–5 and March 11-12, 2025, with the Champions League final taking place in Munich’s Allianz Arena on Saturday, May 31.
But there are six matches to go before any team can start thinking about the Munich final, and even before we reach the quarterfinal stage of the tournament, some big names will fall by the wayside.
Last Friday’s UEFA draw has thrown up some massive games – most of which are tricky to call – and so now is the perfect time to see who is still in the mix and who are the favorites to progress to the quarterfinals.
Let’s look at each of the first-leg games:
Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa
(Tuesday, March 4, 12:45pm ET)
These two have already met in this season’s UCL, with Brugge winning 1-0 back in November in the league phase. But Villa starts this one as a narrow +150 favorite and, over two legs and with them at home for the second leg, the Birmingham giants also start as favorite to progress to the last eight.
Brugge kicks off as a +180 outsider but will fancy their chances of progressing against a good team, but not one that is yet considered to be among England’s elite.
To qualify for the Round-of-16, the Belgians beat Serie A’s Atalanta 5-2 over the two-legged playoff – winning the first leg 2-1 on home turf and then clinching qualification with an emphatic 3-1 win in Italy.
On the domestic front, Brugge looks likely to miss out on the Pro League title – Genk are nine points clear after 27 rounds – but have juggled UCL and league fixtures well and will see a two-legged match against Villa as one that offers them a chance of progression.
Unai Emery is a manager who is considered a European soccer specialist
For Villa, the juggling of UCL and Premier League matches has been more difficult – they face plenty of competition this season for a top-four place, with Manchester City, Newcastle, Bournemouth, and Chelsea all ahead of them – but Unai Emery is a manager who is considered a European soccer specialist.
The Spaniard has won the UEFA Europa League a record four times as a manager – three times with Sevilla and once with Villareal – and so is best placed, outside of all the big names, to lead a team to UCL glory.
But, given how well Brugge has performed at home in this competition, the value for bettors is with them taking a first-leg lead to Villa Park.
Pick: Brugge to win (+180)
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid
(Tuesday, March 4, 3pm ET)
Hands up: who saw a Madrid derby coming in the UCL’s last 16? And hands up: who saw Atleti qualifying automatically with their “royal” neighbors being the ones who needed a playoff match to make it to the Round-of-16?
Either way, the Madrid derby is the most anticipated clash of the round. This is the first time these two have met in the UCL in eight seasons: their semifinal in 2016-17 ended in a 4-2 aggregate win for Real.
In terms of UCL (and European Cup) pedigree, the history of these two clubs is vastly different, with Real being the competition’s most successful club with 15 titles, and their most recent being last season’s 2-0 win at Wembley over Borussia Dortmund.
By contrast, Atleti has yet to claim the trophy, although they have finished as runners-up three times—against Bayern Munich in 1973-74 and twice against Real, in 2013-14 and 2015-16.
As expected, Los Blancos start this match as odds-on favorites (-108) and are, indeed, favorites (+333) to win the whole tournament. However, they would have preferred to have been at home in the second leg. As a result, they will be looking to take a generous lead to the Metropolitano Stadium.
Atleti, who are going toe-to-toe with Real and Barcelona in this season’s La Liga – just a point separates all three after 25 rounds of games – made serene progress to the automatic UCL qualification places with an impressive 6-0-2 record and are realistically priced at +300 to win the first leg.
But, crucially, Atleti are unbeaten in their last five league games against Real – four of those games finishing in draws – while they have lost just one of their last seven against their biggest rivals.
On that basis, the draw looks to be the value bet.
Pick: Real Madrid & Atletico Madrid to draw (+260)
PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal
(Tuesday, March 4, 3pm ET)
Roll the clock back a couple of months and Arsenal would have been a red-hot favorite to get past PSV – both in the first leg and the tie. But times have changed at the Emirates with their EPL title hopes also floundering amid a series of injuries to key players.
Bakayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Gabriel Martinelli have all been missing and this has impacted the Gunners’ ability to score goals. Their home defeat by West Ham last weekend virtually ended their hopes of winning the EPL title. Suddenly, goals are extremely hard to come by for Mikel Arteta’s men.
All of this plays nicely into the hands of PSV, who will be buzzing after their scintillating playoff success over Juventus, which they won after extra time.
the Dutch team will see Arsenal for what they are right now: vulnerable
Domestically, they still have a chance of winning the Eredivisie title, although they do currently trail Ajax by five points – they have drawn their last three league games – but will not want this European journey to end. And the Dutch team will see Arsenal for what they are right now: vulnerable.
Also, very much in PSV’s favor is some brilliant home form at the Philips Stadion this season, where they are unbeaten in the 21, with 16 wins and five draws. By UCL standards, it is a stadium of modest size – a capacity of just over 35,000 – but it generates an atmosphere that makes it a difficult environment for visiting teams.
Interestingly, PSV are still the bookies’ outsiders for this tie at +300 – compared to Arsenal’s -105 for the win – so there is little doubt as to where the value lies for this one.
Pick: PSV to win (+300)
Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille
(Tuesday, March 4, 3pm ET)
For BVB, the route to the last 16 was relatively straightforward following an outstanding 3-0 away win in Lisbon against Sporting in the first leg of their playoff. From there, it was plain sailing and a low-key 0-0 draw in Dortmund was more than enough to get the job done.
Worth noting, also, is that BVB were remarkably close to qualifying automatically for the Round-of-16 minus the need for a playoff. They ended up in tenth place – just a point shy of eighth place, which would have been theirs due to their superior goal difference.
But, equally, BVB will see this draw as potentially the best they could have had, despite Lille finishing one point and three places above them in the qualifying table. This is reflected in the odds, with the Germans listed at -138 for the win while Les Dogues are pitched at +375 with the Signal Iduna Park factor being a significant one.
BVB are notoriously tough to beat on home turf, partly due to the intimidating atmosphere generated in their stadium and by the world-famous “Yellow Wall” in its south stand. To get a result, Lille will have to manage the atmosphere and the occasion.
But Les Dogues are also in a good place and, while PSG have already all but sewn up this season’s Ligue 1 – they are 13 points after 23 rounds of games – Lille are third and well placed to earn another UCL place in 2025-26.
They have had some great successes already in this season’s UCL, beating Real Madrid 1-0 at home on Matchday 2 and Atletico Madrid 3-1 away on Matchday 3. Therefore, a trip to Dortmund, however intimidating, will hold little fear for the French side who will enter this tie with confidence.
Pick: BVB & Lille to draw (+280)
Feyenoord vs. Inter Milan
(Wednesday, March 11, 12:45pm ET)
Feyenoord qualified for the round of 16 thanks to a narrow 2-1 aggregate win over AC Milan in the playoff round but almost did not need that second chance. They went into Matchday 8 with a chance of automatic qualification but, inexplicably, were beaten 6-1 by Lille on an evening where victory would have been enough to qualify.
Fortunately for Feyenoord, they still made it to the last 16 after finding past the Milanese and now face more opponents from Milan! This time… Internazionale. But the Dutch team starts as big outsiders in this match with odds of +450, compared to Inter’s -150.
In the Eredivisie, De Trots van Zuid are currently in third place – several points off the pace being set by Ajax and PSV – and, while they are still clinging to a European place for 2025-26, their form suggests they will struggle to get past Milan over two legs. Until two recent league wins, they had been in poor form and have won just two of their last seven games.
an impressive 6-1-1 record
By contrast, Inter are in a good place and are currently atop of Serie A, just ahead of Napoli and Atalanta. They qualified with relative ease for the round of 16 with an impressive 6-1-1 record and have made clear their ambition of going deep in this tournament.
The Italians start this game as hot -155 favorites and will consider this one of the best draws they could have had at this stage of the competition. Feyenoord are a long +450 for the win – huge odds when you consider they have a home advantage.
While there is little value in betting on the straight home win, the +650 on offer for a single goal Inter win looks decent value.
Pick. Inter to win 1-0 (+650)
Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen
(Wednesday, March 5, 3pm ET)
This all-German affair has the makings of a classic and promises to rival the Madrid derby as the tie of the round with the Bundesliga’s top two going head-to-head.
Interestingly, it was Leverkusen – the 2023-24 Bundesliga champions – who qualified automatically for the Round-of-16 and Bayern who had to negotiate a nail-biting playoff game before their place in the last 16 was assured.
Bayern thought they had done the hard work by beating Celtic 2-1 in the away leg but the Scottish champions gave them the scare of their lives by leading 1-0 at the Allianz Arena before Alfonso Davies secured Bayern’s passage with a late equalizer.
Leverkusen’s progress was more serene and a solid 5-1-2 qualifying campaign negated the need for a playoff. Instead, Xavi Alonso’s men had a free fortnight and has a home advantage in the second leg of this tie, which may end up being crucial.
Unsurprisingly, with Bayern enjoying home advantage in the first leg, they start as -115 odds-on favorites – Leverkusen is a +333 outsider for the win in Munich – but well worth noting is the fact that Alonso’s men are unbeaten in their last six meetings with the Bavarians.
That brings the draw into play for the bettors, which at +300 looks to be a value bet. But, equally, Bayern will be desperate to take a lead to Leverkusen and have the firepower in their team to make this happen.
At -115 for the Bayern win, there is little value in the straight bet but a solid 2-0 home win is a possibility and at +900 makes for a good bet.
Pick: Bayern Munich to win 2-0 (+900)
Benfica vs. Barcelona
(Wednesday, March 5, 3pm ET)
Benfica’s two-legged win in the playoffs to see off the challenge of Monaco was impressive, particularly given how hard the Ligue 1 team made them work. A tense 3-3 draw in the second leg was just enough for the Portuguese team, who effectively won the tie with their 1-0 first-leg win in the principality.
It was always going to be one of the closest playoffs – both Benfica and Monaco finished the qualification stage with 4-1-3 records – but the prize of a Round-of-16 tie against Barcelona was not the ideal one.
Barca ended the qualification phase with a phenomenal 6-1-1 record – finishing second in the table behind only Liverpool – and, partly as a result, are now +400 second-favorites to win the whole competition.
ferocious atmosphere generated by their home fans
They are also favorites to win the first leg of this match in Lisbon, although their odds of -110 reflect just how good Benfica are in their home stadium, the Estadio da Luz. And it’s that home form and the ferocious atmosphere generated by their home fans that gives Benfica a chance in the first leg.
They start as +275 outsiders for their home leg but will quietly fancy their chances of taking a lead to Catalonia, especially if they can keep things tight next Wednesday and avoid conceding an early goal in the game.
Interestingly, the last time these two met in the Estádio da Luz in the UCL – in the group stage of the 2021-22 season – Benfica won their home game 3-0, before drawing 0-0 in the reverse leg in the Camp Nou. Benfica fans will be desperately hoping that history repeats itself.
And it’s not impossible. Benfica has scored goals for fun this season at home and has averaged over three goals per game in the Primeira Liga. If they can avoid conceding that early goal, then there is value here in the home win. There is usually a surprise result in one of the eight ties, and this could be it.
Pick: Benfica to win (+275)
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool
(Wednesday, March 5, 3pm ET)
This one is arguably one of the toughest of the eight games to call. While Liverpool topped the qualification table with an outstanding 7-0-1 record, both teams are running away with their domestic titles – Liverpool leads the EPL by nine points and PSG leads Ligue 1 by 13 points.
While the Parisians failed to get off to a good start in the UCL qualifying group, their form over the last five games has been simply outstanding. All five have been wins, including the two-legged playoff against Brest, and they scored no less than 21 goals in the process, including fours against Man City and Stuttgart and a seven(!) against Brest.
While PSG will respect the Reds, they will not fear them as, right now, they are in a very good place. They have lost just once at the Parc des Princes this season – a 2-1 loss to Atletico Madrid on Matchday 4 of the UCL – and are averaging almost three goals per game.
Arne Slot’s Liverpool will give PSG their sternest test of the season, though. The Reds are currently on course for a treble – the EPL, the UCL, and the EFL Cup – and are showing no signs of struggling with the high volume and intensity of games.
Their away record is equally as good as their home form, and while PSG will not fear the Reds, Slot’s men will be confident of taking a lead back to Anfield for the second leg. Right now, they believe they can beat any opponent put before them.
All of which adds up to a huge task for PSG, although with their amazing home record, it feels like they can hurt Liverpool and that is why they are +145 favorites and the Reds are slight +180 outsiders.
For me, the value bet here is the draw.
Pick: PSG & Liverpool to draw (+280)