First legs of the UCL semifinals this week
And then there were four. Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, and Inter Milan.
All stellar names in European soccer which will now fight it out for a place in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) final in Munich’s Allianz Arena on May 31.
In semifinal 1, Arsenal entertains PSG at the Emirates in the first leg today (April 29, 15:00 KO ET) with the second leg in Paris on May 7. In semifinal 2, Barcelona hosts Inter Milan in the first leg on April 30 (15:00 KO ET), with the second leg taking place six days later on May 6.
Barca has won it five times
While all four are now considered giants of European soccer, only two have won the trophy. Barca has won it five times – most recently in 2015 – while Inter has won it three times, their last being in 2010.
Arsenal and PSG have both made it to the final once, in 2006 and 2020, respectively, but neither has yet managed to lift the trophy.
High stakes and shredded nerves
So, over the next eight days, we are guaranteed soccer of the highest level, but also the nervous tension that only comes when the stakes are at their very highest.
For the record, Barcelona and PSG are the bookies’ favorites to progress to the final, with the Catalans currently listed as the +200 favorites to win the whole competition.
Nothing is a given in top-level soccer, and there will be plenty of twists and turns before the finalists can start preparing for Munich, but have any patterns or trends emerged from previous semifinals that will help us predict who will be heading to Bavaria at the end of May?
We’ll take a look.
Expect the unexpected and never rule out the comeback
The first thing to say is that there is no magic formula for winning any two-legged series, and UCL semifinals are no different. The very nature of two-legged semis means that the chance of a giant-killing is reduced, but they can still happen.
In the 1999-2000 competition, the all-Spanish semifinal of Valencia vs. Barcelona was expected to produce a routine passage to the final for Barca. Yet the tie was turned on its head when the Valenciennes routed the Catalans 4-1 in the first leg.
Valencia proved that it was possible to overturn heavy odds
The talk in the week between the first and second legs was of a Barca comeback, but it never materialized, and over 180+ minutes, Valencia proved that it was possible to overturn heavy odds, even in the world’s greatest club competition, when they kept the score to a narrow 2-1 defeat.
Unfortunately for Barca, they were also on the receiving end of the greatest UCL comeback of all time when, in 2018-19, they headed into the second leg at Anfield against Liverpool with what looked like a very comfortable 3-0 lead.
It was, let’s not forget, a Barca team that contained the legendary Lionel Messi, who had scored two of his team’s three goals in the first leg. But Anfield is a famously fearsome place on a European night, and the Reds stormed back to win 4-0.
Worth noting, too, is that the following night, Tottenham Hotspur found themselves 3-0 down on aggregate to Ajax in the other semifinal, but a second-half Lucas Moura hat trick astonishingly pulled the Londoners level and won them the tie on the away-goals rule.
Value in the low-scoring, first-leg draw
So, while comebacks are not to be relied upon if you make a mess of the first leg, they can happen. Bettors are well advised to consider the tension created by the home crowd in the second leg and how teams with seemingly little to play for can play with a sense of freedom that eventually finds them a route back into the game.
The flip side, of course, is that ties cannot be won in the first leg, but they can be lost. Miracles, as described above, are the exception rather than the rule, so, as a result, it is the norm for the first legs to be tight, nervy affairs with neither team willing to be too expansive in order to stay in the game.
went on to win the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu
In 2023-24, en route to winning the final, Real Madrid was more than happy with the 2-2 draw they earned away to Bayern Munich, and they went on to win the second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu 2-1. The previous season, they were equally happy with a 1-1 on home turf against Manchester City, though the second leg ended in a crushing 4-0 defeat at the Etihad.
But the point still stands. Draws offer value to the bettors in the first legs, and if you’re willing to try for a correct score, usually a low-scoring draw, there is excellent value in nailing it. This is especially so this season with, on paper, four very well-matched teams.
Look out for the Spanish links – bad news for Inter
For those looking for more quirky reasons to place your UCL semifinals bets, I recommend looking no further than nationality. To be more specific, look at those who are either Spanish or who manage Spanish teams.
The last four winners of the competition have all had links to the Iberian Peninsula, which works favorably for three of the four semifinalists this season. Arsenal, whose coach is Spaniard Mikel Arteta, is facing French opponents, but will have a Spaniard in the opposite technical area in the form of former Spain and Barcelona manager Luis Enrique.
we have to go back to the 2019-20 UCL Final to find two teams with no Spanish connections
Ironically, in the other semi, there is not a Spaniard in sight in the technical area, but instead, Barcelona is managed by ex-Germany boss, Hansi Flick. For Inter Milan, there are no Spanish links at all, with their head coach being the former Italian international Simone Inzaghi. Only time will tell if this counts against them, but as mentioned above, we have to go back to the 2019-20 UCL Final to find two teams with no Spanish connections.
In 2021-21, Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea won the trophy, but had to overcome Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in the final, and two seasons later, Guardiola’s City did finally get their hands on the trophy when they defeated Inter Milan in Istanbul.
In 2021-22 and 2023-24, Real Madrid claimed the big prize, both times under the auspices of the legendary Italian Carlo Ancelotti. So, the message here is to bet Spanish if you’re confident that the country’s phenomenal link with this competition will continue.
Arteta vs. Enrique is an enticing prospect over two legs, and whoever triumphs will be confident of keeping the run going, but the smart money will definitely be going on Barca making light of having to play their first leg at home and going all the way.
The supercomputer says Gooners all the way
If you’re a serious bettor who’s unimpressed with quirks and “gut feel,” then maybe the way to try and make sense of it all is to delve deeply into the statistics churned out by the Opta supercomputer.
If Arteta’s men do go all the way, they will be it will bring to an end an unwelcome run
It correctly predicted that Arsenal would knock out Real Madrid at the quarterfinal stage of the competition, and has now gone as far as installing them as favorites to win the whole thing at 31.3%. If Arteta’s men do go all the way, they will bring to an end an unwelcome run of being the team that has played the most games in the tournament without winning it (199).
PSG is next on that same list (163 games), but the supercomputer predicts that their chances of winning the trophy, as things stand, are at just 22.0%. By implication, Opta expects Arsenal to see off the French champions over this two-legged semifinal.
Based on the data, Barcelona are second-favorites to land the trophy at 27.4%, so Opta expects them to comfortably defeat Serie A’s Inter, who it rates at just a 19.2% chance of lifting the trophy and just 42.5% to beat Barca over two legs.
For form and a great home record, PSG offers the value
All of which is great for the statisticians and hipsters, but for those of the old school and who prefer to rely on instinct, then it has to be said that PSG’s rise in form from the early stages, where they were beaten 2-0 by Arsenal at the Emirates, makes them formidable opponents, particularly on home soil.
They made light of quality English opponents in consecutive rounds – Liverpool in the round of 16 and Aston Villa in the quarterfinals – and simply blew them away in the Parc des Princes. If Arsenal don’t take a lead to Paris, they could be in for a very tough time, and even at -137.5 to make the final, PSG looks great value.
